"Chien luoc ca cuoc theo ty le cuoc chap khi doi cua duoi thang nguoc co co so khoa hoc tai 1gom



Trong the gioi ca cuoc the thao day bien dong, viec nam bat va ap dung cac chien luoc hieu qua la chia khoa de gia tang co hoi chien thang. Mot trong nhung chien luoc thu hut su chu y cua gioi chuyen mon va nguoi choi tai 1gom la phuong phap ca cuoc theo ty le cuoc chap (Handicap Betting) khi doi cua duoi gianh chien thang nguoc dong (Upset Win). Thoat nhin, viec dat cuoc vao doi yeu hon co ve rui ro, nhung khi duoc phan tich duoi goc do toan hoc va thong ke, chien luoc nay lai co nhung co so khoa hoc vung chac.



Ty le cuoc chap (Handicap) la gi?



Ty le cuoc chap duoc thiet lap nham can bang co hoi giua hai doi, dac biet khi co su chenh lech lon ve trinh do. Doi manh hon (cua tren) se bi tru di mot so ban thang/diem nhat dinh, trong khi doi yeu hon (cua duoi) duoc cong them so diem tuong ung. Muc tieu cua nha cai la tao ra mot ty le ma ket qua cuoi cung, sau khi ap dung muc chap, se tro nen gan nhu 50/50.



Co so khoa hoc cua viec doi cua duoi thang nguoc



Chien luoc ca cuoc theo ty le cuoc chap khi doi cua duoi thang nguoc dua tren viec khai thac nhung sai lech trong nhan dinh cua thi truong va su thieu chinh xac cua mo hinh du doan ban dau. Co ba yeu to khoa hoc chinh ho tro chien luoc nay:



1. Dinh luat So Lon va Phan phoi Chuan:

Trong mot so luong lon cac tran dau, ket qua thuc te thuong co xu huong phan phoi gan voi gia tri trung binh hon so voi nhung gi ty le cuoc ban dau du doan, dac biet o nhung tran co muc chap lon. Cac mo hinh du doan ban dau cua nha cai thuong bi anh huong nang boi cac yeu to de thay nhu phong do gan day hay danh tieng doi bong. Tuy nhien, trong nhung tran dau cu the, su may man, yeu to tam ly hoac mot sai lam ca nhan co the lam thay doi ket qua. Khi doi cua duoi thang nguoc, dieu nay thuong xay ra khi ho vuot qua duoc muc chap ban dau, mang lai loi nhuan cao cho nhung ai dat cuoc som vao ho.



2. Hieu ung Tam ly va Ap luc Du thua:

Doi cua tren, khi chap sau, thuong mang ganh nang tam ly phai thang dam. Ap luc nay doi khi dan den viec ho choi thieu tu tin hoac qua than trong o nhung thoi diem quan trong. Nguoc lai, doi cua duoi thi dau khong con gi de mat, dieu nay giai phong ho khoi ap luc va cho phep ho choi voi su tu do va quyet tam cao nhat. Su thay doi tam ly nay, mac du kho do luong bang cong thuc toan hoc thuan tuy, nhung lai la mot bien so thong ke quan trong anh huong den ket qua thuc te cua tran dau, dac biet trong cac giai dau ma su chenh lech trinh do khong qua xa nhu bong da chau Au.



3. Tan dung gia tri ky vong (Expected Value – EV):

Yeu to cot loi trong ca cuoc chuyen nghiep la tim kiem gia tri duong (Positive EV). Gia tri duong xuat hien khi xac suat chien thang thuc te cua mot ket qua cao hon xac suat ngu y (Implied Probability) duoc the hien qua ty le cuoc. Khi doi cua duoi duoc chap mot muc lon va ty le tra thuong cao, dieu do ngu y rang xac suat ho thang hoac hoa (sau khi ap dung chap) la thap. Tuy nhien, thong qua viec phan tich chuyen sau cac yeu to vi mo (chan thuong bat ngo, dieu kien thoi tiet, lich thi dau day dac), nguoi choi tai 1gom co the xac dinh duoc xac suat thuc te cua viec doi cua duoi thang nguoc cao hon xac suat nha cai dua ra. Neu xac suat thuc te > Xac suat ngu y, thi do la mot cuoc co gia tri.



Ung dung chien luoc tai 1gom



De ap dung chien luoc nay thanh cong, nguoi choi can tuan thu mot quy trinh phan tich nghiem ngat:



* **Lua chon tran dau:** Uu tien cac tran dau ma doi cua tren co lich thi dau day dac hoac dang doi mat voi cac van de noi bo ma thi truong chua phan anh day du vao ty le cuoc.

* **Nghien cuu Chieu sau:** Dung chi nhin vao vi tri tren bang xep hang. Hay xem xet doi hinh du kien, su thay doi nhan su vao phut cuoi va dong luc thi dau (vi du: doi cua duoi dang chien dau tru hang).

* **Quan ly Von (Bankroll Management):** Vi day la chien luoc mao hiem (vi no dua tren kha nang thang nguoc), viec phan bo von nho va dat cuoc co ky luat la dieu bat buoc de dam bao ton tai lau dai trong thi truong ca cuoc bien dong nay.



Tom lai, chien luoc ca cuoc theo ty le cuoc chap khi doi cua duoi thang nguoc khong phai la mot tro may rui, ma la mot phuong phap dua tren su hieu biet sau sac ve cach thi truong dinh gia rui ro va su phan tich cac bien so thong ke tiem an. Ap dung ky luat va phan tich khoa hoc khi dat cuoc tai 1gom se giup ban khai thac toi da nhung co hoi gia tri ma ty le cuoc chap mang lai."

Xem them: https://1gom.gold